Well… the Echo Drop certainly didn’t go as planned.
By Wave 2 of the Echo Drop, it had been postponed unfortunately due to errors with the website.
Demand was always going to be high for this event — but now many players have deposited WETH into their MetaMask wallets and aren’t sure what to do now that they missed out on a Zed.Run Horse during the Drop.
Don’t worry. This isn’t the end of the road if you still want to participate in Zed.Run.
These are some potential next steps you COULD take depending on your budget and what you want to get out of Zed.Run!
1. Buy a Bred Horse
Buying a Bred Horse does not give you the long-term Rarity that a Genesis Horse will, but it is the cheapest way to get involved in Zed.Run.
Here are our favorite “Target Areas” when looking for a valuable horse that may be worth more than its List Price:
Legendary Buterins with Good Parents
This “Target Area” comes to us mostly by courtesy of the folks at ZedGazette.com. There is a working theory from Zed Gazette that Buterins are more “consistent” breeders than other blood types based on their Population Size being larger.
If that theory is correct, than Legendary Un-raced Buterins who came from a set of good parents could be an undervalued area to find a solid horse that still has a lot of breeding potential for itself.
I’ve bought and flipped a few horses who fell under this category the last time that Breeding was open with good results.
With everything being unknown about breeding, getting yourself a horse that belongs to the 2nd of 6 breed types is certainly an okay consolation prize if you missed out on Drops.
Legendary Buterins are also able to breed into our next Category of Target Areas… which brings us to:
Exclusive or Elite Fillies
Exclusive and Elite Fillies are one of the most interesting breed types in the whole world of Zed.Run. To fully understand what I’m talking about, you probably need to read this article first: Are Genesis Colts Worth More Than You Think?
Basically, it boils down to two simple facts though:
- If you breed an Exclusive Filly with a Genesis Male, you will receive an Exclusive Foal
- If you breed an Elite Filly with a Genesis Male, you will receive an Elite Foal
This just means that you are able to breed a horse and not “lose” a breed type as you do in every other breeding situation above Cross and Pacer.
Personally, I think this is a part of the game that most people are over-looking and I think you could get a lot of value here especially if you find an Exclusive or Elite Filly that has some interesting lineage. Strong racers or strong breeders that are Genesis or Legendary grandparents of an Exclusive Filly could be a strong mix that could lead to you to an undervalued asset.
A Horse That Has What You’re Looking For
What do I mean by that?
Well, basically – what I’ve written above are my personal thoughts and I believe they’re documented by good logic. The great news about Zed.Run is that you don’t have to agree with me!!
Everyone is going to have their own theories, their own entry price points, their own favorite colors, names, racing distances, and on and on!
You should look for something that you think has reason to be under-valued or that gives you joy. If you want to get in the game for $50 – there eventually may be Pacers that let you do that.
There’s no right or wrong way to play the game – I’m just here to help you think logically about a purchasing decision
Keep in mind – no matter what you buy, you need to be happy paying that specific price for your asset. Never invest anything you can’t afford to lose!
2. Buy a Raced Genesis
Buying a Genesis that has already been raced can be a difficult process. However, it’s probably the cheapest way to lock yourself into that ‘rare’ area that could blow up if the game becomes massively popular.
Here are the factors you need to really understand before you commit to buying a Raced Genesis:
- Win/Place/Show Stats
- Horse Odds
- Breeding Potential
- Various “Preference” Factors
- Paid vs. Free Races
If you don’t have an in-depth understanding of how everything works that I just wrote – go back to the “Getting Started” Page, Do Not Pass Go, and go do your homework.
If you’re confident you know how these horses perform – let’s go over the various categories:
Proven Winners
Obviously, one of the best Genesis Horses to buy would be a “Proven Winner”. This is a horse that has a solid Win Rate over time and ideally would also be showing a significant positive ROI in paid races over time.
The problem?
These horses are also massively expensive. Like, seriously massively expensive.
On top of that, changes in “Preference Factors” or the Strength of Competition could lead to these horses not being worth quite as much as what everyone thought.
There should always be a breeding opportunity for a Proven Winner though… so obviously the upside is here.
Proven Losers
On the flip side… we have Proven Losers.
These are horses that are pulling 20-45 odds in all of their races. Not good.
The good news here is that you still have something rare in the fact that you would own 1 Genesis Horse – something that has a maximum limit of 38,000. It’s still a theory, but these horses would still be breeding out Legendary offspring which should be worth… something(?).
You would also get the benefit of the potential “DEZ” token that Zed is or isn’t potentially releasing some day as well. (Find the #Dez channel on Discord to learn about that whole mystery)
For my money, I really don’t ever want to have something that can never race. If you’re looking to find the cheapest way in to a “rare” horse though, Proven Losers will always be the cheapest Genesis to buy. I just wouldn’t be too excited about it.
Mystery Horses
Finally, we come to the Genesis Horses that are more mysterious than their Proven brothers and sisters.
In this category, I include horses who may:
- Have less than 5 total races
- Have odds anywhere between 10-19 consistently
- Haven’t been run at certain distances at all
- Have some other kind of fluctuating performance
Okay, so let’s start with the obvious question: Why would anyone sell their Genesis Horse after 5 races or even after 1 race?
Well, there are many users who are simply interested in the “monsters” of Zed.Run. Remember those Proven Winners we just talked about? Some people just want those ETH-printing machines and nothing else.
That leaves a lot of opportunity for a savvy buyer. It’s common to see horses sold after a Griffin Race alone just because they didn’t pull the best odds.
Again, this will take a lot of research and depending on how conditions and competition change – it may or may not be profitable. However, for most people this may be the mix to find something that will be a decent racer or a decent breeder at a reasonable price.
You should look for horses who have run rarely against really tough competition that caused them to get bad odds, or horses who have some great odds in a rarely-raced distance. One great place to look if you’re looking at single-raced Horses is their Griffin competitors.
Remember, nothing is “fool-proof” when comparing horses, however this is the best way to “bargain bin” shop if you’re looking for a Raced Genesis Horse.
3. Buy An Un-Raced Genesis Anyway
If you’re really into the Lotto aspect that a Drop provides, you might be best served by buying an Un-Raced Genesis Horse.
Unfortunately, you are going to pay a pretty big premium here for the privilege of getting that Genesis “lotto ticket”. The reason why Un-raced Genesis are more expensive on the marketplace is because they have an unlimited range of possibilities. They could be garbage – but they could also be the type of horse that makes multiple ETH per month.
This really depends on your budget. You can use the site Hawku.com and filter to “Genesis” and “0 Races Run” to find the floor for each Z# that you might be looking for.
To me, buying an un-raced Genesis is always going to be an interesting way to get into Zed.Run because your Genesis horse should hold its value well and be useful in Breeding almost no matter if it is a strong horse or a weak one… and you still get that “lotto ticket potential” of an un-raced Genesis.
It’s usually a good time to buy a few days after a major Drop because “flippers” are busy selling their inventory that they were able to get from that Drop.
ONE MAJOR WARNING WHEN IT COMES TO BUYING AN UN-RACED HORSE ON OPEN SEA:
Some people will list an “un-raced” horse and enter it into a “Griffin” race so they can check the odds of the horse. This is usually the biggest problem if you make an “offer” for a horse because then the Seller has time to enter the horse, check the odds, and either accept the offer if it has bad odds, or keep the horse for himself if it has good odds.
Here are the best ways to avoid this “hustle” if you are buying an Un-raced Horse on Open Sea:
- Check the horse’s stats on Zed.Run
- Check the horse’s stats on KnowYourHorses.com
- Check the open Griffin Race entries on Zed.Run
- Always buy Un-raced at List Price – do not make offers or let bids hang
4. Wait For the Next Drop
If you’re only willing to pay a certain amount for a Genesis horse, Drops will be the cheapest place to get them until all 38,000 horses have been released. (meaning Un-Raced at the lesser $ amounts)
As we’ve seen over the past few months with Zed.Run, a Drop only gives you a small chance to buy a horse. As of 8/19/21, there are 70,000 members in the official Zed Discord.
However, a small chance at a discounted asset is better than no chance at a discounted asset.
It’s uncertain when the actual Drop will happen or what kind of format the Zed.Run team will turn to next… You’ll just have to stay tuned.
If you’re only willing to participate at a discount, this is really your only hope as frustrating as it may be.
It’s important to note: I personally do not think the Zed Team is going to be releasing a “Marketplace Drop” ever again. With only 10,000-ish Horses remaining after the 6,000 Million Dollar Drop Giveaway; it would be very hard for me to rely on the hope of getting a Genesis from a “Drop Event”.
(This section will be removed when all Drops have concluded)
Summary
You honestly do not need a Genesis Horse to enjoy Zed.Run.
A ton of focus gets put on them because of the Drop Events, but that doesn’t mean you need one to have fun or even to have a positive ROI.
Remember to think about your goals. Why are you involved with Zed.Run? Are you trying to secure a profit or are you just looking to have a bit of fun? What breeds or lineage will help you do that?
Because this is a new space, built on the blockchain and tied to the value of ETH – there are always going to be major fluctuations. Keep in mind that you should never invest something that you are not willing to lose into the Zed.Run environment!
With these helpful tips, even if you missed out on the most recent Zed Drop – you can still be prepared for success in the future!
The post What If I Missed Out On The Zed.Run Drop? (Thoughts On Buying Your First Horse) appeared first on Zed Guru.