This might seem like a question with an obvious answer to some of our readers: Race horses run, right?
However, if you look at the prices of some Un-Raced Genesis Horses on the market vs. some of the Raced Genesis… we can see that the picture may not be so clear.
This article is only possible when making some pretty big assumptions about the Zed Run landscape; so we’ll try to walk you through it with the best info we can and let you make your own “bullish / bearish” assumptions as we go along to help you decide what you think will be best for your horse!
On top of that; some people are asking if they should ever run their Zed.Run horse and others are trying to look and see after say, 50 Races should they continue running their new digital asset?
We’ll break it all down for you… let’s get right to it!
Discussing the Pro’s and Con’s of an Un-Raced Genesis
This is an extremely popular question to ask in the Zed Discord; and it’s not a “one answer for everyone” kind of deal.
If you leave a Genesis as an “Un-Raced / Un-Bred”, you are creating the ultimate “Collector’s Item” that we really have no way of knowing how much it will be worth in 2-3 years down the road.
I could see very bullish possibilities where a completely untouched Genesis Horse could easily be worth 10x or even more depending on if you are looking at value / drop prices, etc. As we’ve seen from BAYC – could someone be willing to pay 2 or 3 ETH years down the road for this ultimate Zed Collector’s Item or “Unboxing” kind of item? I definitely think it is within the realm of possibilities.
It’s almost impossible to put a price tag on this kind of item because so much of it will depend on Zed’s success catching on with the mainstream public as well as a few other factors like the strength of bred horses and prices on decent raced Genesis horses as well.
However, that doesn’t mean that you should consider this a done deal.
While that is a possibility, I’m not sure I would call it a probability.
It’s simply a complete unknown to say what someone might pay for an Un-Raced Genesis years down the road. There’s also a possibility that your asset goes to 0 whether it’s some kind of shut down of Zed for company reasons or regulation reasons.
One big train of thought is that in the years that you are hoping your Un-Raced Genesis asset to grow in value; each month will see new bred horses entering the eco-system. Many of these bred horses will have the chance to become the best horses in the game. If the top end of the Racing environment keeps getting tougher and tougher, that means your Un-Raced Genesis will never really have a chance at being a monster itself; lessening one path to revenue for a future buyer.
That brings us to the biggest issue of leaving your horse Un-Raced and Un-Bred:
You lose any Racing Value (positive or negative) and any Breeding Value (almost certainly positive) that your Genesis Horse could be earning each month you leave it Un-Raced / Un-Bred.
Breeding will be the biggest revenue producer for most Genesis Horses. Although some can run races with a positive ROI, almost all of them should be profitable when creating offspring.
To me, losing out on 3 potential stud fees per month or 1 offspring per month really hurts your asset if you are thinking in a “cash flow” model.
Now, there are some people that want to compromise and say well, “Just leave your horse Un-Raced but still collect on the Breeding Revenue”.
There’s definitely some debate and people who disagree with me on this; but I feel like as soon as you breed your horse you’re going to be showing “indicators” about whether it’s a good racer or not. Obviously, there’s never going to be 100% correlation between offspring and racing ability – but personally that’s how I would view it from the marketplace.
I don’t think an Un-Raced Genesis Stallion with 90 offspring in 3 years has anywhere near the “Collector’s Value” that an Un-Raced Genesis Colt would. Of course, again depending on if those offspring perform well or not… that’s a whole different story.
Finally, we come to the biggest point that I have:
If you’re looking to participate in Zed.Run, you certainly can’t do that with an Un-Raced / Un-Bred horse.
In my opinion, the worst thing you could do is try to leave your Horse in its packaging for a few months, and then get FOMO and take it out of its wrapping.
If you’re perfectly happy to log back in in 3 years and see if you made a killing; I think an Un-Raced / Un-Bred Zed Horse isn’t the worst way to try and do that. It’s certainly worked from tons of projects over the years from Pokemon Cards to certain Action Figures or Toy Cars.
However, if you want to actively play the game, you just can’t participate with a toy in its original package.
Many friends I know are leaving say – 1 horse Un-Raced / Un-Bred in a stable of 10 Genesis Horses. Again, I think that’s a hedge that makes a lot of sense.
Personally, I love playing the actual game of Zed.Run and missing out on the potential revenue flows from Breeding simply scares me too much to leave a Horse sitting on the sidelines.
Just to summarize – we have the Pro’s and Con’s of keeping Un-Raced / Un-Bred
- Massive Collector’s Item / ETH Value Potential if Zed gets huge
- Could have a poor Runner so you’d save a small amount if you are a negative ROI racer
- Miss out on Monthly Breeding Revenue
- Could have a great Runner so missing an opportunity to run races regularly for a positive ROI
- Don’t get to have as much fun on Zed.Run
This is also definitely another opinion; but I also feel that Un-Raced Genesis will always sit in between what a “Proven Loser” running horse costs and a “Proven Winner” running horse costs.
So, since we know fatigue is coming and more bred Winners are coming – I think that could put a bit of a damper on the potential ceiling of an Un-Touched Genesis down the road.
Okay, let’s change gears a bit and ask a question:
Should I continue Running my Horse after X # of Races?
Okay, so quite obviously if your horse has a U-Shape and is printing ETH with consistent 7-8 odds… keep running it.
Also quite obviously, if your horse is pulling 20-45 odds and bleeding ETH… please stop running it.
But somewhere in between those 2 areas lie horses who might pull 9 odds sometimes, then pull an 18 if they get spooked, then pull a few 12’s in a row. Now what do we do?
Well, the easiest thing to look at is ROI on a site like KnowYourHorses.com. If your horse has a positive ROI, keep running, right?
I would argue that it’s not so simple. I have a horse at -25% ROI in 125 Races that I’ve basically “unlocked” meaning I’ve learned when / where it’s acceptable to run it and get good odds and I’ve learned how to keep it there.
Not all horses are going to be the same. Unfortunately, there’s no median or average “Odds Number” where I can tell you, “Okay, at 12.5 Odds stop running“.
Basically, here are the flow chart questions you should ask yourself when you’re thinking about whether to keep running your Zed Horse or not:
- Is my horse currently a Positive ROI Horse?
- If not, am I learning behaviors about my horse that will lead to it being a Positive ROI Horse?
- Could it become a Positive ROI Horse in the future with different competition? If so, should I “shelve” it for now?
- Even if it does have a Positive ROI, if I continue to race it will it class up to a range where it will no longer be competitive?
- Am I running for strict ROI Purposes or am I running to enjoy the Zed.Run game?
As of this writing on June 22nd, 2021 – you should keep in mind that the Racing environment is incredibly tough right now.
There are some different trains of thought, however once bred horses enter the Racing atmosphere – I think it will be a bit easier to pick your spots and find some races that you should be competitive in – especially in Class 4/5.
On top of that, the Zed Team has announced that Tiers should also be coming to Race Classes so that the monsters don’t just hide out in Class 5 and scare away all the newcomers too.
If you use our Resources Page; you should be able to get this information on your horse pretty easily and you can make a more informed decision about whether to keep running or not.
You should also have a full understanding of Odds to keep your horse running at a profitable level.
Make Your Best Call
At the end of the day, no one can tell you what to do with your Zed.Run Horse. What I’ve written here is how I like to go through my decision-making process regarding these things. If you find yourself disagreeing with what I write – it’s a good indication to follow your gut and put your flag in the ground in that area.
While Un-Raced / Un-Bred have a ton of potential; they miss out on Racing and Breeding revenue and the fun of playing the game.
Most people who have profitable (Plus EV) horses will continue to run them, but if you are slightly negative – consider trying to experiment and see if you can find a way to make your horse a winner!