The turmoil and quick changes of Novus Earth have continued this week starting with the mind-boggling decision to hold a $75,000 Race with a 5 Minute warning, and carrying on with lower Breeding Minimums, a Tournament starting, and news of a potentially un-announced algo change way back in August.
It’s a busy time to be a citizen here on Novus Earth.
Important Note: This article is being published on November 19th, 2021. “After” the new Breeding Minimums. Future changes may render some or all of this information obsolete. All info is current as of 11/19/21 and is the opinion of the writer for entertainment purposes only — NOT Financial Advice
Setting The Scene: A List of Recent Changes & Environment Conditions of Zed.Run as of November 19th, 2021
Obviously, the reason I am writing about the “Title Question” of “Can You Make Money Here?” is because there have been several aspects of Zed.Run that people are not so satisfied with as of late.
Some of you may like certain changes listed below, it is simply a list of Recent Changes along with some personal Pain Points.
These include, but are not limited to:
- Vague and/or Zero Communication from the Decision Makers at Zed
- A recent change to “Class Rating” Points from 4-3-2-1-0-0-0-0-(-1)-(-2)-(-3)-(-4) to 6-4-2-0-0-0-(-2)-(-2)-(-2)-(-2)-(-2)-(-2)
- Free “Tournament Qualifier” Races that only allow Positive Class Rating Points, not negative ones
- Breeding Minimums Reduced
- A rigid 5-Class System with no area for Maiden Classes, or Not-Often-Winner Classes
- A general feeling of ‘oversupply’ of Bred Horses (probably more accurately described as Low Demand and/or “Nowhere to Run Them”)
- A Race Lobby that does not generate all of the necessary Race Distances for Users to enter Races easily
- No discernible vision or communications regarding “DEZ”
As I said above — some of these things could be seen as a positive. I certainly liked the Breeding Minimums announcement. But all of these Bullet Points are factoring in to how we need to think about our strategy when it comes to making money on Zed.Run.
It should go without saying, some of these Bullet Points are obvious negatives with no redeeming qualities.
Let’s Dig In!
The Different Ways to Make Money on Zed.Run as of November 19th, 2021
There are a few different paths with varying upside and risks associated with them on Novus Earth. Here are some of the most common ones as I see the Game:
Can You Make Money Racing on Zed.Run on 11/19/21?
Obviously, this is one of the most straight-forward examples of making profit in Zed.Run.
If you have a horse who can consistently win Races, it stands to reason that you should be able to profit off of that Horse.
You get roughly “5.5x” profit for Winning a Paid Zed.Run Race, so it doesn’t take too sharp of a Winning % to make that work…. in theory.
The harder part comes in with some of the Rules that Zed just implemented when it comes to Racing.
Recently, they changed it so that a “1st Place Finish” which used to be worth 4 Class Rating Points is now worth 6 Class Rating Points. Each Class only has 20 Points assigned to it — so 2 extra points is really 10% towards the next hardest Class you would be in.
While it is my opinion that all of the Classes offer pretty tough Paid Racing right now, it was obviously better for the “Natural U” Shape Horses before this update came out. They could pick up -3 or -4 by coming in 11th or 12th, and some even naturally just stay at a “Base” Class Rating while trying to win.
Remember, I’m not arguing Game Mechanics right now — I’m simply looking at what can be profitable. A previous “Natural U” who is getting classed up may struggle to make as much profit.
This update also affects “Manufactured U’s” which are horses who, to use an example would come in great positions let’s say in the 2200-2600m range, but almost always come in the bottom 4 in the 1000-1200m range.
These Horses were able to potentially stay “Class Point Neutral” with one loss, or maybe 2 Wins to 3 Losses as an example. Now, these horses will have to intentionally lose 3 Times (-2 * 3) to stay “Class Point Neutral” to overcome the Points awarded for 1 win. (6)
Neither of these Horses are able to utilize Free Races to down-class any more, as those do not award Negative Points any more.
NOW — let’s play Devil’s Advocate for a moment:
If Horses are de-classing 3x as much; doesn’t that open up the Playing Field for other horses to become MORE profitable when they lose?
Yes & No.
It’s actually a good Counter-Point, but it probably still does more for ‘Monster’ Horses as opposed to creating a ‘fringe winner’ suddenly winning more Races. An Open Race with 11/12 Horses that has 5 Monsters and 6 De-Classers is still going to have a very high level of difficulty for a ‘borderline’ Horse.
The biggest problem with Paid Racing right now in my opinion is the slow Generation of Races in the Race Lobby and a lack of availability which means Entering Races takes longer and Horses cannot burn through their Stamina as quickly — leading to more Stacked Races.
Anyway, from all of this information, let’s draw some conclusions on who can definitely earn money with Paid Racing:
- You have a Class 1 Monster Earning Horse who is not affected by changes to Class Rating issues
- You have a Natural U that wins SO much but can still lose enough to stay Low in Class
- You have a Manufactured U (Distance Specialist) this is able to win $10 Entries and can de-class using $2.50’s
Here are the the things that “Newbies” would want to be warned about when thinking about Racing on 11/19/21:
- Are you buying a Horse that was only Profitable in the Previous Class Rules?
- Are you buying a Horse that has been “Classed-Up” and will take considerable effort or cost to put back into a correct environment
- Will Zed.Run change the Class Rules further and will that help or hurt your horse?
- Will Zed.Run commit to transparency regarding any algorithm changes that could help or hurt your horse?
- How much of a “grind” will it be and how long will it take to recoup your investment on a “Racing” Horse?
Is it possible to make money via Racing in Zed.Run right now?
VERDICT: IT IS HARDER, BUT STILL CAN BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE MONEY ON ZED.RUN VIA RACING.
BIGGEST CONCERN: CHANGES CAN COME AT ANY TIME FROM THE CLASS SYSTEM TO THE ALGO THAT COULD PUT YOUR HORSE IN AN UNPROFITABLE ENVIRONMENT
Can You Make Money Entering Tournaments on Zed.Run on 11/19/21?
So, basically the best resource to read about Tournaments starts with an article that I already wrote here.
To summarize that a bit:
- 79% of Horses who Made Money in Tournament #1 were Genesis or Legendary Breed Type
- 52% of Horses who Made Money in Tournament #1 were Nakamoto or Szabo Blood Type
- Only 2 of 144 Horses who Made Money in Tournament #1 had a Z# Over 20
Okay, so with those 3 Facts we see that Tournament #1 was pretty top-heavy in terms of which Horses could actually compete and make any amount of Profit.
Tournament #2 (The Fibonacci Cup) is looking to change that, albeit with a smaller Prize Pool, by including 1,152 Horses instead of 576 Horses.
However, my theory is that the Fibonacci Cup will be just as top-heavy or even more so as we see things play out.
That is because you have Horses “classing up” via Wins 50% faster (4 vs. 6) than they were before.
The “Fibonacci Formula” Points are a little bit more friendly to U-Shapes, which we could see in some lower Breed & Blood Types — but will they be “classed up” too high by the time they finish their 30 Qualifiers for this to matter?
The biggest thing here with Tournaments is that we have only seen the first 2 Formats — not the forever Formats.
Zed.Run could implement a Free “Cross and Pacers” tournament as an example to encourage growth among the presumably ‘weaker’ Horses of the environment. However, as of this writing they have not announced when that would be coming.
Let’s draw some Conclusions on who can definitely earn money from Tournaments, as of 11/19/21:
- Class 1 Monsters who are able to beat out the best of the best once Qualifiers are over
- Extremely Talented Horses who can face off against tough competition
Here are the the things that “Newbies” would want to be warned about when thinking about Tournaments on 11/19/21:
- Using Free Races will absolutely result in your Horse classing up
- You may not stand a chance at making money in an “Open” Format unless you have a Genesis or Legendary with a Z# Under 20
- Future Tournaments COULD have Rule Sets designed to award Money to Lower Breeds and Blood Types, however no Rule Sets have been announced as of yet.
Is it possible to make money via Tournaments in Zed.Run right now?
VERDICT: FOR NOW, YOU HAVE TO HAVE ONE OF ‘THE BEST OF THE BEST’ TO MAKE MONEY VIA TOURNAMENTS.
BIGGEST CONCERN: FIBONACCI SEEMS HARDER TO GET INTO THAN TOURNAMENT #1. WILL THE ZED TEAM DELIVER ON MORE TOURNAMENT FORMATS FOR ‘NEWBIES’?
Can You Make Money “Breeding To Sell” on Zed.Run on 11/19/21?
A few months ago, a ton of Videos and Zed.Run Content came out telling Users to stock up on Certain Breeds and one of the primary ideas was that Users could “Breed to Sell” their Offspring, particularly UnRaced/UnBred/UnNamed Horses. (U/U/U)
Tons of people flocked to the idea — and the Floor promptly plummeted on Bred Horses.
Since the new Breeding Minimums are here, let’s take a look at the Market and Costs associated with Breeding and find out if we see an opportunity.
I can’t necessarily get into all of the permutations of ‘every Horse’ type – so I’m going to look at Legendary Szabos, Legendary Buterins, and Exclusive Buterins.
I’m going to assume people are using Genesis Males to create all of these, even the Exclusive as that will probably be fairly popular:
Legendary UUU Szabo Floor: .145 ETH / $600 USD
Cost to Create In-House: $110 Breeding Fee
DIFFERENCE: $490 USD
Legendary UUU Buterin Floor: .0021 ETH / $88 USD (Female: $115 USD)
Cost to Create In-House: $41 Breeding Fee
DIFFERENCE: $47 USD or $74 USD (Female)
Exclusive UUU Buterin Floor: $.014 ETH / $58 USD
Cost to Create In-House: $41 Breeding Fee
DIFFERENCE: $17 USD
Okay, so we have 3 levels of Profit there. Of course, it’s still Profitable at the moment to create a Legendary Szabo — but buying a Pair would cost nearly $9,000 USD. Buying a Gen Szabo pair right now would get you essentially get you that $500 + 2 Stud Fees (assuming they fill which I think is somewhat fair) valued at $140 x 2 = $280.
So you’re looking at $780 Profit monthly from a Gen Szabo Breeding Pair that costs $9,000 on the Market, approximately 1 year to break-even if you don’t have Racers?
Unfortunately, that hypothetical 1 year is dependent on the Bred Floor not dropping … which has been a historical constant for Zed in terms of Bred Horses as Users will always be looking to Flip these assets if they can for Profit.
The other 2 have profits of $50 or $15 right now … and you can bet the market will continue to come down on those…
Significant Demand is really the only thing that could change how these “Price Windows” continue to get narrower and narrower over time.
Right now, the ecosystem has roughly 150,000 Horses and we haven’t really seen too many new Users coming into Zed.Run.
If there was significant demand, people could raise Prices on these Bred Offspring and that could entirely shift the market.
Zed.Run also controls the Breeding Fees – so any reduction or rate increase would change Profits as well.
Let’s draw some Conclusions on who can definitely earn money from Breeding to Sell, as of 11/19/21:
- For now, if you have top-level Genesis Horses, you should be able to sell at a profit for awhile until the supply catches up with these new Breeding Minimums
Here are the the things that “Newbies” would want to be warned about when thinking about Breeding to Sell on 11/19/21:
- Just because the examples above “look” Profitable — the Breeding Minimums have been live for 2 days. There is going to be a significant increase in Supply as long as ANYTHING is Profitable
- Once an equilibrium is hit — do you personally believe there will ever be an influx in Demand in what you are Breeding together?
Is it possible to make money “Breeding to Sell” in Zed.Run right now?
VERDICT: THE NEW BREEDING MINIMUMS WILL GIVE A BIT OF ‘BREATHING ROOM’ TO USERS WHO BREED TO SELL U/U/U.
BIGGEST CONCERN: BREEDING WILL INCREASE HEAVILY NOW THAT BREEDING ANYTHING IS PROFITABLE AGAIN. WILL THERE EVER BE A SURGE IN DEMAND TO MAKE THIS CHANGE PERMANENT?
Can You Make Money “Breeding To Race” on Zed.Run on 11/19/21?
This is an interesting question because of all of the recent Changes to Zed.Run Racing (see above)
Let’s break this down using a “Legendary Buterin” as an example.
As we said above, breeding a Leg Bute with the 2-Stable 56% Method would cost roughly $41 right now.
To be honest with you… $41 is not much of a cost in terms of a Lotto ticket for a Profitable Racer – however the concerns above still apply.
Sure, winning a Griffin Race alone would grant you $24 of the $41 back, but I don’t think anyone can say they can win those reliably.
Horses that are ‘borderline’ don’t really have a place in Zed.Run right now. Paid Races are incredibly tough and Free Races only class you up. If you choose to race a new Offspring, you’re really finding out whether your horse is “Great or Not”. Not much else can be determined in my opinion.
Now, if you time the birth of this Offspring with a tournament, run it in Cheap Paids so it doesn’t class up out of its mind, you have a reasonable path forward.
Is it willing to you to find out if your $41 ‘Ticket’ is worth it? You’ll probably lose most times, but when you win will you have an asset that can compete against the best of the best?
Let’s draw some Conclusions on who can definitely earn money from “Breeding to Race”, as of 11/19/21:
- In the current environment, this method only makes sense to me for Legendary Nakamotos, Szabos, and Finneys.
Here are the the things that “Newbies” would want to be warned about when thinking about “Breeding to Race” on 11/19/21:
- To even take the risk of creating a “Scratch Ticket”, you want to know you have the Upside available to you
- It will be expensive to find out if your Horse has ability — $2.50 at a time — because you don’t want to up-class 6 Class Points at a time
- Exclusives and below do not seem to have the ability ‘to pay off’ in Tournaments in current formats.
Is it possible to make money Breeding to Race in Zed.Run right now?
VERDICT: THIS MAY BE A VIABLE OPTION (ALTHOUGH STILL RISKY) IF YOU ARE ABLE TO CREATE LEGENDARY NAKAMOTOS, SZABOS, AND FINNEYS.
BIGGEST CONCERN: IF YOU ARE BREEDING LEGENDARY BUTERIN OR BELOW — WHAT IS YOUR PATH TO SUCCESS & HOW MUCH WILL A “SUCCESSFUL” BREED EVEN ALLOW YOU TO PROFIT?
Can You Make Money Via “Stud Fees” on Zed.Run on 11/19/21?
If you’ve been on a long-time “Zed Guru” Reader and Listener – you know that the 1st Article ever published on ZedGuru.com was about Genesis Males and their ability to get Stud Fees.
For the past 2 Months due to Breeding Minimums being tied to ETHl not many Horses were seeing their Covers filled due to the exorbitant cost of Stud Fees and the relative inability to make that money back racing or selling an Offspring.
However, 2 days ago the Breeding Minimums changed as seen below:
The good news for Genesis Male owners is that the narrow Pricing between Genesis and Legendary (and all Breeds for that matter) is that Genesis Males should still be picked quite often over any other Horse.
However, there is some bad news that comes with these new Minimums. Since the team decreased what a Stud Fee is worth (as opposed to adding utility in their game), that means that the Ceiling is somewhat capped for Genesis Males and Stud Fees.
Genesis Male Horses have thirteen 28-Day Windows in which to ‘sell’ their covers. That really means that a Genesis Male is now capped at roughly $2,000 USD per year. (Math below)
$92 (Stud Fee) * .56 (Percentage of Stud Fee received) = $51.52
$51.52 * 3 Covers per 28 Day Period = $154.56
$154.56 * 13 (28 Day Periods Per Year) = $2,009.28
That’s really the Ceiling to how much a Genesis Buterin can make right now as a Breeder without implementation of DEZ or other benefits to Genesis HODLers. I personally would recommend evaluating its Racing ability separately.
However, this also recalls the already-mentioned problems above. Genesis Males ARE seeing more Covers since the Breeding Minimum change…. but is this only a temporary fix until the Market Supply catches up again?
We know the Legendary Buterin U/U/U Floor from above is $88 Male / $115 Female. Why not just buy one if you’re interested instead of the additional costs of OWNING a Genesis Female and then paying a Stud Fee?
Let’s draw some Conclusions on who can definitely earn money from “Stud Fees”, as of 11/19/21:
- The “Breeding Minimum” set-up is great for Genesis Owners compared to other Breeds — especially those who have a Genesis who is a very talented Racer or has produced great Offspring. They should continue to see regular Stud Fees
Here are the the things that “Newbies” would want to be warned about when thinking about “Stud Fees” on 11/19/21:
- We’re 2 days into the new “Breeding Minimums”. Will people still select to mate with an ‘outside’ Genesis Male once more Market Supply is available
- Have the past 2 months conditioned people into only Breeding with a 56% Discount?
- Will the Demand ever push the value of breeding with a Genesis Male to $92, $130, etc
- Horses outside of the Genesis Breed Type are unlikely to see Covers until Genesis Males are ‘sold out’ of the Stud Farm
Is it possible to make money via “Stud Fees” in Zed.Run right now?
VERDICT: THIS IS SOMEWHAT VIABLE FOR NOW AS LONG AS YOU HAVE A STRONG GENESIS MALE UNTIL MARKET SUPPLY CATCHES UP
BIGGEST CONCERN: NO CHANCE AT A STUD FEE UNLESS YOU OWN GENESIS. WILL MARKET SUPPLY CATCH UP EXTREMELY QUICKLY?
Conclusion: The One Unifying Factor
There is ONE FACTOR above all else that you can see from Section to Section to Section in this article.
It’s all about Gameplay.
It’s all about the failure to create a Racing Ecosystem that includes more Horses.
- Can the Zed Team create that Racing Environment where Elites, Cross, and Pacers make money?
- Can the Zed Team fix the Racing Lobby so it is fun to enter Races & not a chore?
- Will the Zed Team be transparent about what Changes may be coming in the future so that Users can set up an appropriate strategy?
- Can the Zed Team add any inherit value to owning a Zed Run Horse, such as DEZ?
Basically, can they make the risks of owning or breeding a Zed Run Horse worth the potential Rewards?
As we’ve seen throughout this Article — right now on 11/19/21, the answer is usually “No” unless you have a top-of-the-line Horse.
I think this includes about 5% of Horses in the Game, if that.
If Zed can make the appropriate changes, then we may see the value start to change on the roughly 95% of Horses that do not fit that description.
AS ALWAYS, Your Feedback is GREATLY appreciated. Do you agree with this Article? Disagree? You’ve got a chance to respond! Simply go to @ZedGuruOfficial and Reply to this Post!
Let’s keep the conversation going and ENCOURAGE positive change within the Zed.Run Environment!
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