Odds are no longer generating for new Zed.Run Races — however it is very important to understand how Odds worked previously and how certain horses may compare to your horses!
AFTER reading this article; you may be interested in reading our article about ‘Flames‘. It’s also linked at the end of this article.
Even though Zed.Run no longer generates Odds data; it is still a huge tool that we can use to understand the racing atmosphere.
Odds are still being generated by sites like KnowYourHorses.com after the race is over and at Picks.PlayWithZest.com about 7 minutes before your scheduled race starts.
The biggest thing to know about odds: They are NOT an accurate representation of the probability of winning a race. (as it stands currently as of this writing)
Let’s break it down:
What We Know About Zed.Run Odds
Here are the things we do know about odds – either from the official Zed.Run team or from testing using data:
- The Odds are generated by running 1,000 simulations of the scheduled race
- Odds do NOT match up properly… if your horse has 20 odds, it is not 5% likely to win a given race (more on that in a second)
- However, odds do have correlation to the Winning Position – not Place or Show Positions.
So… how do we know that Zed.Run odds aren’t quite right? DanShan is a known community member who has crunched the numbers and made a few tools that are out for public consumption.
The community had figured out that the Odds were not scaled correctly because 40-odds horses were NEVER winning. The highest reported odds of a winning horse on Zed.Run were around 32-35. With hundreds of races being run each day – this never quite added up.
So what are the actual odds using the DanShan formula (.9131e^-.219x) that you have of winning? Let’s take a look:
| ODDS: | WIN %: |
| 1 | 73.4% |
| 2 | 58.9% |
| 3 | 47.3% |
| 4 | 38.0% |
| 5 | 30.5% |
| 6 | 24.5% |
| 7 | 19.7% |
| 8 | 15.8% |
| 9 | 12.7% |
| 10 | 10.2% |
| 11 | 8.2% |
| 12 | 6.6% |
| 13 | 5.3% |
| 14 | 4.3% |
| 15 | 3.4% |
| 16 | 2.7% |
| 17 | 2.2% |
| 18 | 1.8% |
| 19 | 1.4% |
| 20 | 1.1% |
Now, can I guarantee with 100% accuracy that this chart will provide the exact winning percentage of your horse over the long haul? No… not really. Variance exists and we can’t technically verify this with Zed as they’ve already announced odds will be replaced by something new.
This does give us a better frame of reference to work with though. Many people were racing their 20-odds horses thinking they were getting 5% Win Rates… but they’re actually way down at 1.1%. That’s a HUGE jump.
It’s also important to note that the chart flips right around 10-odds.
So, if your horse is pulling single digit odds – it’s a bit more likely to win than you would think if these were betting odds. If your horse is pulling double digit odds – it’s less likely to win than you’d think.
As the Zed Run team makes changes to the Odds system; it’s extremely likely that we’ll need to keep adapting to the information given to us to make the best choices about racing our digital ponies.
What do you think about this situation with Odds? You can learn about Flames (Temporary Odds Replacement) at this link:
Zed.Run Flames Explained (Strategy For the Post-Odds World)
Comment below and let us know how you’re feeling!
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The post The Odd Things About Zed.Run Odds appeared first on Zed Guru.